The Financial Express

Follow-up actions of Natwar visit alone to yield results

Sayed Kamaluddin

8/11/2005

The bilateral Indo-Bangladesh relations have reached a crossroads. The three-day high-profile visit of the Indian External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh to Dhaka, the statements he made and the nuances he conveyed tended to suggest that he is a changed person and means business.A section of the media, however, commenting on the event appeared overwhelmed by the visit and concluded that Singh has conveyed the message that 'New Delhi values its relations with Dhaka' and equated it with India's breakthrough in improving ties with Pakistan. Sceptics, however, find it too simplistic a conclusion -- particularly in the context of the most complicated and emotion-charged issues between the two countries -- to be reached too soon.

No doubt that Natwar Singh's perception about Bangladesh -- which at one stage had, in fact, threatened the process of holding the scheduled summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) in Dhaka earlier this year -- may have changed. But any hasty conclusion on the prospects of Dhaka's bilateral ties with Delhi at this stage could raise expectations too high and put unnecessary pressures on both the governments.

The most positive outcome of the Natwar Singh's visit appears to be the fact that while both sides did not agree on everything, they expressed their commitment to engaging themselves to seriously pursue a number of the longstanding disputes that defied solution for decades. This is important because not agreeing with one other -- or agreeing to disagree -- does not mean the end of this world. The two sides have also realised that the pace of making any progress in any given direction could be slow but they should not give up talking to each other. They have also underscored the importance of continuation of the bilateral dialogue at various levels in order to help avoid any flare-up of issue that could potentially jeopardise bilateral ties.

The BNP-led coalition government came to power about four years ago, but the Bangladesh Prime Minister was never invited to visit India. Natwar Singh has handed over a letter from Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh to Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia, inviting her to pay a visit soon. This is, no doubt, a welcome development because the highest-level bilateral visits can contribute a lot to bridge-building and promotion of mutual understanding.

However, it is not known if Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia could make such a visit to India, before the SAARC summit in Dhaka, now scheduled for November next. Similarly, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who has a standing invitation from his Bangladesh counterpart, may not find it convenient to visit Dhaka before the SAARC summit.

On his part, analysts suggest that Natwar Singh may not have gone back home fully satisfied. But he must have left Dhaka contended because he was able to make direct contact at the highest political level for the first time and perhaps also because of the reassurances he got here about Dhaka's policy not undergoing any radical change in the near future.

Interested quarters within India as well as in Bangladesh have been making concerted efforts to convey a chilling message to New Delhi of a possible radical policy change in Dhaka. Dhaka's non-committal stance on New Delhi's bid for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council may have fuelled such a campaign.

Be that as it may, Natwar Singh seems to have given strong signals by admitting that ministerial level visits from India to Bangladesh was not up to expectations and that his Bangladesh counterpart visited Delhi four times before he could make even one. However, he pointed out that three Indian cabinet ministers -- Water Resources Minister Priya Ranjan Dash Munshi, Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath and Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Mani Shanker Aiyer -- are to visit Bangladesh in the course of next three months in a quick succession. This perhaps means that Delhi is trying to rectify its earlier policy of not giving Dhaka enough thought for its foreign policy parameter.

However, if Natwar Singh's gestures of confidence and goodwill are any guide, it could be safely assumed that the three Indian ministers visiting Dhaka could soon sort out -- or, reach an accord about addressing -- the most disputed issues that exist between their two countries, in close collaboration with their Bangladeshi counterparts. Singh's noticeably extra efforts to reassure Dhaka of Delhi's readiness to cooperate with it could also lead one to believe that during their forthcoming meetings in Dhaka, the three ministers would be ready to summoning their political will and commitment to rise above petty-mindedness and find solutions.

Of course, as it takes two to Tango, Dhaka should also be prepared to meet them halfway. Once this happens, the sceptics could be effectively proved wrong.

Other important official-level meetings that are on the card include the meetings of the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC) and the Joint Economic Commission, which are expected to discuss the issues in details. Once the decisions are reached at the political level to cooperate with each other, the official-level meetings would only aim at being helpful, instead of being difficult, in reaching decisions to the mutual satisfaction of both sides. This explains the reasons amply well why so many disputes have defied solutions for so long.

Analysts believe that some of the bilateral disputes are really complicated and even with goodwill and political readiness, they may take time to be settled. But the parties, while discussing the issues, do need to get the right signals in right time about whether there is a genuine desire at the highest political or policy-making levels about settling the same or they were only trying to delay the process.